Background: Breast cancer (BC) remains a significant health care challenge, and treatment approaches continue to evolve. Among these, neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (NET) has gained prominence, particularly for postmenopausal, hormone-receptor positive, HER2-negative (HR+/HER2-) BC patients. Despite this, a significant gap exists in identifying patients who stand to benefit from NET. The objective of this study was to assess whether Magee equations (MEs) could serve as predictors of response to NET.
Methods: This retrospective study included adult patients with invasive BC who underwent NET followed by curative surgery. Assessment of sociodemographic, clinical, and tumor-related variables was conducted. The ME1, ME2, ME3, and ME mean were analyzed to explore their predictive role for NET response. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were employed, along with the determination of optimal cutoff points. Logistic regression models were utilized to identify the most significant predictors of pathological response.
Results: Among the 75 female participants, the mean age was 69.4 years, with the majority being postmenopausal (n = 72, 96%) and having an ECOG-PS of 0/1 (n = 63, 84%). Most patients were classified as luminal A (n = 41, 54.7%). ME3 emerged as a promising predictor, boasting an AUC of 0.734, with sensitivity of 90.62% and specificity of 57.50% when the threshold was ≤ 19.97. In univariate analysis, clinical staging (p = 0.002), molecular subtype (p = 0.001), and ME3 (continuous = 0.001, original 3-tier: p = 0.013, new 2-tier: <0.001) categories exhibited significant associations with pathological response. In the multivariate model, clinical staging and new 2-tier ME3 (<20 vs. ≥20) were included as significant variables.
Conclusions: Patients with ME3 < 20 have a higher likelihood of presenting a pathological response, offering a cost-effective alternative tool to Oncotype DX. Larger future studies with a prospective design are awaited to confirm our findings.
Keywords: Magee equation; breast cancer; luminal; neoadjuvant endocrine therapy; pathologic response.