Multilevel and general linear modeling of weather and time effects on the emotional and behavioral states of children with profound intellectual and multiple disabilities

Abstract

Introduction: Eliciting the emotional and behavioral states of children with severe or profound intellectual disabilities (IDs) and profound intellectual and multiple disabilities (PIMD) due to their complex and atypical developmental trajectories has become increasingly elusive. It is evident that the environment, influenced by weather conditions and time of the day, plays a pivotal role in molding children's behaviors, emotions, and interactions. This underscores the significance of the environment as a critical factor in exploring the communication dynamics of children with PIMD/IDs.

Methods: Over five months during fall and winter seasons, we conducted 105 video-recorded sessions with 20 children aged 8 to 16 with PIMD/IDs. These sessions aimed to capture the emotional and behavioral states interpreted by caregivers while simultaneously collecting indoor and outdoor weather indices, location, and time data. Using cross-classified multilevel and general linear models adjusted for individual characteristics and location variability with subsequent simple slope analyses, we examined the main and seasonal interaction effects of indoor and outdoor weather indices and time of the day on the emotional and behavioral states of children with PIMD/IDs.

Results: The models revealed that higher atmospheric pressure (atm), indicative of pleasant and favorable weather conditions, was associated with increased engagement (indoor: p < 0.01; outdoor: p < 0.01) and interest (outdoor: p < 0.01) behaviors. In contrast, engagement levels decreased before lunchtime (p < 0.01; p < 0.001), and inclement or unstable weather conditions characterized by low-pressure systems (p < 0.05) and stronger wind speed (p < 0.05) led to more refusal or disagreement. During winter, children displayed significantly more agreement with their caregivers (p < 0.001). Interestingly, they also engaged more on cloudy days (p < 0.05). Furthermore, simple slope analyses revealed that high atm conditions in fall were linked to more engagement (p < 0.05) while humid conditions predicted more assent behaviors (p < 0.001). However, cloudy weather predicted less attentional focusing (p < 0.05) and interest (p < 0.01) behaviors in winter.

Conclusion: This study confirms that fluctuations in weather indices, including seasonal changes and time of the day, can provide potential pathway indicators and supplement behavioral observations to elicit the behavioral states of children with PIMD/IDs. These findings highlight the importance of considering these factors when designing meaningful interactions and communication interventions for this population.

Keywords: behavioral measures; emotional states; environmental influences; intellectual disability; multilevel modeling; seasonal variations; time; weather indices.