Risk subgroups and intervention effects among infants at high risk for peanut allergy: A model for clinical decision making

Abstract

Background: The Learning Early About Peanut Allergy (LEAP) trial showed that early dietary introduction of peanut reduced the risk of developing peanut allergy by age 60 months in infants at high risk for peanut allergy. In this secondary analysis of LEAP data, we aimed to determine risk subgroups within these infants and estimate their respective intervention effects of early peanut introduction.

Methods: LEAP raw data were retrieved from ITNTrialShare.org. Conditional random forest was applied to participants in the peanut avoidance arm to select statistically important features for the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to group infants based on their risk of peanut allergy at 60 months of age. Intervention effects were estimated for each derived risk subgroup using data from both arms. Our main model was generated based on baseline data when the participants were 4-11 months old. Specific IgE measurements were truncated to account for the limit of detection commonly used by laboratories in clinical practice.

Results: The model found infants with higher predicted probability of peanut allergy at 60 months of age had a similar relative risk reduction, but a greater absolute risk reduction in peanut allergy with early introduction of peanut, than those with lower probability. The intervention effects were significant across all risk subgroups. Participants with baseline peanut sIgE ≥0.22 kU/L (n = 78) had an absolute risk reduction of 40.4% (95% CI 27.3, 51.9) whereas participants with baseline peanut sIgE<0.22 kU/L and baseline Ara h 2 sIgE <0.10 kU/L (n = 226) had an absolute risk reduction of 6.5% (95% CI 2.6, 11.0). These findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using alternative models.

Conclusion: In this study, risk subgroups were determined among infants from the LEAP trial based on the probability of developing peanut allergy and the intervention effects of early peanut introduction were estimated. This may be relevant for further risk assessment and personalized clinical decision-making.

Keywords: early introduction; intervention effect estimation; learning early about peanut allergy (LEAP); peanut allergy; prevention; risk subgroups.