Importance: Identifying primary angle closure suspect (PACS) eyes at risk of angle closure is crucial for its management. However, the risk of progression and its prediction are still understudied in long-term longitudinal studies about PACS.
Objective: To explore baseline predictors and develop prediction models for the 14-year risk of progression from PACS to primary angle closure (PAC).
Design, setting, and participants: This cohort study involved participants from the Zhongshan Angle Closure Prevention trial who had untreated eyes with PACS. Baseline examinations included tonometry, ultrasound A-scan biometry, and anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) under both light and dark conditions. Primary angle closure was defined as peripheral anterior synechiae in 1 or more clock hours, intraocular pressure (IOP) greater than 24 mm Hg, or acute angle closure. Based on baseline covariates, logistic regression models were built to predict the risk of progression from PACS to PAC during 14 years of follow-up.
Results: The analysis included 377 eyes from 377 patients (mean [SD] patient age at baseline, 58.28 [4.71] years; 317 females [84%]). By the 14-year follow-up visit, 93 eyes (25%) had progressed from PACS to PAC. In multivariable models, higher IOP (odds ratio [OR], 1.14 [95% CI, 1.04-1.25] per 1-mm Hg increase), shallower central anterior chamber depth (ACD; OR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.67-0.97] per 0.1-mm increase), and shallower limbal ACD (OR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.93-0.99] per 0.01 increase in peripheral corneal thickness) at baseline were associated with an increased 14-year risk of progression from PACS to PAC. As for AS-OCT measurements, smaller light-room trabecular-iris space area (TISA) at 500 μm from the scleral spur (OR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.77-0.96] per 0.01-mm2 increase), smaller light-room angle recess area (ARA) at 750 μm from the scleral spur (OR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.98] per 0.01-mm2 increase), and smaller dark-room TISA at 500 μm (OR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.80-0.98] per 0.01-mm2 increase) at baseline were identified as predictors for the 14-year risk of progression. The prediction models based on IOP and central and limbal ACDs showed moderate performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.63-0.75) in predicting progression from PACS to PAC, and inclusion of AS-OCT metrics did not improve the model's performance.
Conclusions and relevance: This cohort study suggests that higher IOP, shallower central and limbal ACDs, and smaller TISA at 500 μm and light-room ARA at 750 μm may serve as baseline predictors for progression to PAC in PACS eyes. Evaluating these factors can aid in customizing PACS management.