Benefit-Risk Assessment of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines in Children Aged 6 Months to 4 Years in the Omicron Era

Abstract

Background: There is no risk and benefit assessment of COVID-19 vaccination for children younger than 5 years using a single health outcomes scale. The objective of this study is to compare the expected risk and benefits of the mRNA primary series of COVID-19 vaccines for children aged 6 months to 4 years in the United States using a single health outcome scale in the Omicron era.

Methods: The expected benefits and risks of the primary two-dose series of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for children aged 6 months to 4 years were stratified by sex, the presence of underlying medical conditions, the presence of infection-induced immunity, and the type of mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273). A scoping literature review was conducted to identify the indicators in the decision tree model. The benefit-risk ratio was the outcome of interest.

Results: The benefit-risk ratios ranged from 200.4 in BNT162b2 for males aged 6-11 months with underlying medical conditions and without infection-induced immunity to 3.2 in mRNA-1273 for females aged 1-4 years without underlying medical conditions and with infection-induced immunity.

Conclusions: The expected benefit of receiving the primary series of mRNA vaccines outweighed the risk among children ages 6 months to 4 years regardless of sex, presence of underlying medical conditions, presence of infection-induced immunity, or type of mRNA vaccines. However, the continuous monitoring of the COVID-19 epidemiology as well as vaccine effectiveness and safety is important.

Keywords: COVID-19; children; quality-adjusted life years; risk; safety; vaccine.