Effects of scheduled school breaks on the circulation of influenza in children, school-aged population, and adults in China: A spatio-temporal analysis

Abstract

Objectives: To investigate the effect of scheduled school break on the circulation of influenza in young children, school-aged population, and adults.

Methods: In a spatial-temporal analysis using influenza activity, school break dates, and meteorological covariates across mainland China during 2015-2018, we estimated age-specific, province-specific, and overall relative risk (RR) and effectiveness of school break on influenza.

Results: We included data in 24, 25, and 17 provinces for individuals aged 0-4 years, 5-19 years and 20+ years. We estimated a RR meta-estimate of 0.34 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.40) and an effectiveness of 66% for school break in those aged 5-19 years. School break showed a lagged and smaller mitigation effect in those aged 0-4 years (RR meta-estimate: 0.73, 0.68-0.79) and 20+ years (RR meta-estimate: 0.89, 0.78-1.01) versus those aged 5-19 years.

Conclusion: The results show heterogeneous effects of school break between population subgroups, a pattern likely to hold for other respiratory infectious diseases. Our study highlights the importance of anticipating age-specific effects of implementing school closure interventions and provides evidence for rational use of school closure interventions in future epidemics.

Keywords: Age-specific; China; Influenza; School break; Spatial-temporal analysis.