Hydro-meteorological droughts across the Baltic Region: The role of the accumulation periods

Diana Meilutytė-Lukauskienė; Serhii Nazarenko; Yaroslav Kobets; Vytautas Akstinas; Alireza Sharifi; Ali Torabi Haghighi; Hossein Hashemi; Ilga Kokorīte; Baiba Ozolina

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169669

Hydro-meteorological droughts across the Baltic Region: The role of the accumulation periods

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Feb 25:913:169669. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169669. Epub 2024 Jan 2.

Authors

Diana Meilutytė-Lukauskienė¹, Serhii Nazarenko², Yaroslav Kobets³, Vytautas Akstinas², Alireza Sharifi⁴, Ali Torabi Haghighi⁴, Hossein Hashemi⁵, Ilga Kokorīte⁶, Baiba Ozolina⁷

Affiliations

¹ Lithuanian Energy Institute, Lithuania. Electronic address: diana.meilutyte-lukauskiene@lei.lt.
² Lithuanian Energy Institute, Lithuania.
³ Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia.
⁴ University of Oulu, Finland.
⁵ Lund University, Sweden.
⁶ University of Latvia, Latvia; Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre, Latvia.
⁷ Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre, Latvia.

PMID: 38176563
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169669

Abstract

Based on the physical and geographical conditions, the Baltic Region is categorised as a humid climate zone. This means that, there is usually more precipitation than evaporation throughout the year, suggesting that droughts should not occur frequently in this region. Despite the humid climate in the region, the study focused on assessing the spatio-temporal patterns of droughts. The drought events were analysed across the Baltic Region, including Sweden, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. This analysis included two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), for different accumulation periods. Daily data series of precipitation and river discharge were used. The spatial and temporal analyses of selected drought indices were carried out for the Baltic Region. In addition, the decadal distribution of drought classes was analysed to disclose the temporal changes and spatial extent of drought patterns. The Pearson correlation between SPI and SDI was applied to investigate the relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts. The analysis showed that stations with more short-duration SPI or SDI cases had fewer long-duration cases and vice versa. The number of SDI cases (SDI ≤ -1) increased in the Western Baltic States and some WGSs in Sweden and Finland from 1991 to 2020 compared to 1961-1990. The SPI showed no such tendencies except in Central Estonia and Southern Finland. The 6-month accumulation period played a crucial role in both the meteorological and hydrological drought analyses, as it revealed prolonged and widespread drought events. Furthermore, the 9- and 12-month accumulation periods showed similar trends in terms of drought duration and spatial extent. The highest number of correlation links between different months was found between SPI12-SDI9 and SPI12-SDI12. The results obtained have deepened our understanding of drought patterns and their potential impacts in the Baltic Region.

Keywords: Baltic region; Drought indices; Hydrological drought; Meteorological drought; SDI; SPI.

MeSH terms

Baltic States
Climate*
Droughts*
Meteorology / methods
Rivers