Background: Serial echocardiographic assessments are common in clinical cardiology, e.g., for timing of intervention in mitral and aortic regurgitation. When following patients with serial echocardiograms, each new measurement is a combination of true change and confounding noise. The current investigation compares linear chamber dimensions with volume estimates of chamber size. The aim is to assess which measure is best for serial echocardiograms, when the ideal parameter will be sensitive to change in chamber size and have minimal spurious variation (noise). We present a method that disentangles true change from noise. Linear regression of chamber size against elapsed time gives a slope, being the ability of the method to detect change. Noise is the scatter of individual points away from the trendline, measured as the standard error of the slope. The higher the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the more reliably a parameter will distinguish true change from noise.
Methods: LV and LA parasternal dimensions and apical biplane volumes were obtained from serial clinical echocardiogram reports. Change over time was assessed as the slope of the linear regression line, and noise was assessed as the standard error of the regression slope. Signal-to-noise ratio is the slope divided by its standard error.
Results: The median number of LV studies was 5 (4-11) for LV over a mean duration of 5.9 ± 3.0 years in 561 patients (diastole) and 386 (systole). The median number of LA studies was 5 (4-11) over a mean duration of 5.3 ± 2.0 years in 137 patients. Linear estimates of LV size had better signal-to-noise than volume estimates (p < 0.001 for diastolic and p = 0.035 for systolic). For the left atrium, the difference was not significant (p = 0.214). This may be due to sample size; the effect size was similar to that for LV systolic size. All three parameters had a numerical value of signal-to-noise that favoured linear dimensions over volumes.
Conclusion: Linear measures of LV size have better signal-to-noise than volume measures. There was no difference in signal-to-noise between linear and volume measures of LA size, although this may be a Type II error. The use of regression lines may be better than relying on single measurements. Linear dimensions may clarify whether changes in volumes are real or spurious.
Keywords: Accuracy; Echo volumes; Imprecision; Serial change; Variability.
© 2023. The Author(s).