Background/aims: New prognostic markers are needed to identify patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who carry a worse prognosis. Ultra-low-pass whole-genome sequencing (ULP-WGS) (≤0.5× coverage) of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) has emerged as a low-cost promising tool to assess both circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) fraction and large structural genomic alterations. Here, we studied the performance of ULP-WGS of plasma cfDNA to infer prognosis in patients with HCC.
Methods: Plasma samples were obtained from patients with HCC prior to surgery, locoregional or systemic therapy, and were analyzed by ULP-WGS of cfDNA to an average genome-wide fold coverage of 0.3x. ctDNA and copy number alterations (CNA) were estimated using the software package ichorCNA.
Results: Samples were obtained from 73 HCC patients at different BCLC stages (BCLC 0/A: n=37, 50.7%; BCLC B/C: n=36, 49.3%). ctDNA was detected in 18 out of 31 patients who received systemic treatment. Patients with detectable ctDNA showed significantly worse overall survival (median, 13.96 months vs not reached). ctDNA remained an independent predictor of prognosis after adjustment by clinical-pathologic features and type of systemic treatment (hazard ratio 7.69; 95%, CI 2.09-28.27). Among ctDNA-positive patients under systemic treatments, the loss of large genomic regions in 5q and 16q arms was associated with worse prognosis after multivariate analysis.
Conclusion: ULP-WGS of cfDNA provides clinically relevant information about the tumor biology. The presence of ctDNA and the loss of 5q and 16q arms in ctDNA-positive patients are independent predictors of worse prognosis in patients with advanced HCC receiving systemic therapy.
Keywords: Biomarkers; Copy number alterations; Liquid biopsy; Liver cancer; Prognosis.