Solar photovoltaic panel production in Mexico: A novel machine learning approach

Abstract

This study examines the potential for widespread solar photovoltaic panel production in Mexico and emphasizes the country's unique qualities that position it as a strong manufacturing candidate in this field. An advanced model based on artificial neural networks has been developed to predict solar photovoltaic panel plant metrics. This model integrates a state-of-the-art non-linear programming framework using Pyomo as well as an innovative optimization and machine learning toolkit library. This approach creates surrogate models for individual photovoltaic plants including production timelines. While this research, conducted through extensive simulations and meticulous computations, unveiled that Latin America has been significantly underrepresented in the production of silicon, wafers, cells, and modules within the global market; it also demonstrates the substantial potential of scaling up photovoltaic panel production in Mexico, leading to significant economic, social, and environmental benefits. By hyperparameter optimization, an outstanding and competitive artificial neural network model has been developed with a coefficient of determination values above 0.99 for all output variables. It has been found that water and energy consumption during PV panel production is remarkable. However, water consumption (33.16 × 10^-4 m³/kWh) and the emissions generated (1.12 × 10^-6 TonCO₂/kWh) during energy production are significantly lower than those of conventional power plants. Notably, the results highlight a positive economic trend, with module production plants generating the highest profits (35.7%) among all production stages, while polycrystalline silicon production plants yield comparatively lower earnings (13.0%). Furthermore, this study underscores a critical factor in the photovoltaic panel production process which is that cell production plants contribute the most to energy consumption (39.7%) due to their intricate multi-stage processes. The blending of Machine Learning and optimization models heralds a new era in resource allocation for a more sustainable renewable energy sector, offering a brighter, greener future.

Keywords: Artificial neural network; Machine learning; Multi-objective optimization; Renewable energy; Solar photovoltaic; Sustainability.