Prediction of lymph node metastasis of lung squamous cell carcinoma by machine learning algorithm classifiers

Abstract

Background: Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is an essential factor affecting the prognosis of patients with lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC), as well as a critical consideration for the choice of treatment strategy. Exploring effective methods for predicting LNM in LUSC may benefit clinical decision making.

Materials and methods: We used data collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to develop machine learning algorithm classifiers, including boosted trees (BTs), based on the primary clinical parameters of patients to predict LNM in LUSC. Training on a large-sample training cohort (n = 8,063) allowed for the construction of several concise classifiers for LNM prediction in LUSC, which were then validated using test and in-house cohorts (n = 2,017 and 57, respectively).

Results: The six classifiers established in this research enabled distinction between patients with and without LNM. Among these classifiers, the BT classifier was the top performer, with accuracy, F1 scores, precision, recall, sensitivity, and specificity values of 0.654, 0.621, 0.654, 0.592, 0.592, and 0.711, respectively. The precision recall (PR) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) (with area under the curve = 0.714) curves also supported this result, which was validated by the in-house cohort. Notably, the tumor stage was a critical factor in determining LNM in patients with LUSC.

Conclusions: The use of classifiers, especially the BT classifier, may serve as a useful tool for improving clinical precision and individualized treatment of patients with LUSC.