Did carbon emission trading scheme improve energy use in China? An integrated approach based on SCM and threshold regression

Abstract

The analysis of energy use not only sheds light on lightening the increasing pressures from energy systems but also improves the flexibility and reliability of power systems. As the highest carbon emission country in the world, detailed evaluation of China's carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) on the energy use is sensitive to energy sectors and highlights the importance of energy utilization in current society. Yet, because of the presence of a possible discontinuity caused by policy implementation, this study uses synthetic control method (SCM) to confirm whether there is a cutoff for energy use after the ETS implementation. Furthermore, threshold regression model is integrated to estimate the causal relationship when there is a discontinuity. SCM is used to verify which has caused the discontinuity for threshold regression model, and threshold regression model is used to quantify and estimate the causal relationship which SCM cannot evaluate. Through the data analysis, it is found that ETS makes effect on energy use deduction in most of pilot ETS regions while the effect is affected by economic development, population, industry, and research. Some suggestions on how to reduce energy use conclude this paper.

Keywords: Carbon emission trading scheme (ETS); Energy use; Synthetic control method (SCM); Threshold regression model.