Health risk assessment of heavy metals based on source analysis and Monte Carlo in the downstream basin of the Zishui

Abstract

In this study, stone coal mines in the lower reaches of the Zijiang River were adopted as the research object. To analyze the spatial distribution, sources, and health risks of heavy metals in the surrounding soil of stone coal mines, 82 topsoil samples were collected in the study area, and the contents of 8 heavy metals including Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Pb, Cu, Ni, and Zn were determined. The spatial distribution of heavy metals was analyzed using ArcGIS, and the pollution sources of heavy metals were identified using Positive matrix factorization (PMF). Then, Monte Carlo and health risk assessment models were used to evaluate the health risks of different populations. The results showed that the average content of heavy metals followed the order of Zn > Cr > Pb > Cu > Ni > As > Cd > Hg, and the contents of all heavy metals were higher than the soil background values of Hunan Province. The high-value areas of heavy metals content were mostly concentrated in the central region close to areas with a notable concentration of stone coal mines. PMF identified four pollution sources, namely, mining activities (26.9%), atmospheric deposition (18.8%), natural sources (32.8%) and agricultural sources (21.5%). The carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children were higher than those for adults, with As and Cd posing higher carcinogenic risks to children. Based on the source of health risks, it was determined that the health risks could be primarily attributed to agricultural sources, and As was the main heavy metal causing health risks. This study provides theoretical support for treating heavy metal pollution in mining basins.

Keywords: Health risk assessment; Heavy metals; Monte Carlo; PMF; Source identification; Stone coal mines.