Ultra-processed foods (UPFs), according to the NOVA classification food system, are food products that are processed using advanced processing technology, which improves palatability and sensory quality. However, UPFs increase the daily intake of energy, sodium, sugar, and total fat (including saturated fat), and decrease the intake of fiber. This might trigger overweight and obesity, the initial stages of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). However, the effect of UPF consumption on NCDs remains under debate. This study aimed to synthesize the effect size of UPF dose response on various NCDs by using a meta-analysis method. The main output was a hazard ratio (HR) and a 95% confidence interval (CI). Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) selection guidelines, 18 research articles were chosen for further effect size synthesis. The results showed that UPF consumption significantly increased the daily intake of carbohydrates, added sugar, saturated fat, sodium, energy, cholesterol, and total fat; increases of 49.64, 40.78, 30.00, 27.76, 26.67, 25.69, and 15.77%, respectively, were observed. Moreover, with UPF consumption, the fiber intake was way below the daily dietary recommendation (DR), at -38.55%. Further, a 10% increment in UPF consumption significantly affects diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, obesity, and cancer (HR ± 95% CI: 1.115 ± 0.044, 1.096 ± 0.053, 1.068 ± 0.050, and 1.020 ± 0.020, respectively). Thus, limiting daily UPF consumption could help prevent obesity and various NCDs.
Keywords: NOVA system; dose response; meta-analysis; noncommunicable disease; ultra-processed foods.