Performance in competitive situations has been linked to various psychobiological factors such as personality traits (e.g., competitiveness), situational appraisal (e.g., motivation), and cardiovascular response (e.g., heart rate). However, it remains unclear whether these factors can predict competitive success. This paper aims to assess, through discriminant analysis, the predictive capacity of these psychobiological variables regarding the likelihood of winning, ultimately delineating a psychophysiological profile associated with success. Across three distinct studies, a total of 154 participants (66 men) engaged in a face-to-face laboratory competition. Prior to the competition, assessments of competitiveness traits, anxiety, self-efficacy, and motivation were conducted, and heart rate reactivity during the competition was measured. These variables collectively formed the basis for constructing the predictive model. The results of the initial study demonstrated that our model accurately classified 68.8% of the cases. Specifically, high levels of competitiveness, self-efficacy, motivation, and heart rate reactivity, coupled with low anxiety, were predictive of winning. These findings were subsequently replicated in two independent validation samples involving both men and women (studies 2 and 3), thereby reinforcing the robustness of the earlier results. In conclusion, our findings suggest that the psychological state preceding competition, along with cardiovascular reactivity, may serve as predictors for the probability of winning.
Keywords: anxiety; competitiveness; heart rate reactivity; motivation; self-efficacy; winner–loser.