Analysis and prediction of 5-year survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma: a model-based period analysis

Suzheng Zheng; Hai Yu; Xinkai Zheng; U Tim Wu; Wai-Kit Ming; Hui Huang; Jiaxin Song; Xiaoxi Zhang; Jun Lyu; Liehua Deng

doi:10.3389/fendo.2023.1238086

Analysis and prediction of 5-year survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma: a model-based period analysis

Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2023 Dec 6:14:1238086. doi: 10.3389/fendo.2023.1238086. eCollection 2023.

Authors

Suzheng Zheng^#¹, Hai Yu^#¹, Xinkai Zheng¹, U Tim Wu², Wai-Kit Ming³, Hui Huang¹, Jiaxin Song¹, Xiaoxi Zhang¹, Jun Lyu^{4

5}, Liehua Deng^{1

6}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University and Jinan University Institute of Dermatology, Guangzhou, China.
² Meng Yi Centre Limited, Macao, Macao SAR, China.
³ Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
⁴ Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
⁵ Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Informatization, Guangzhou, China.
⁶ Department of Dermatology, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Heyuan, China.

^# Contributed equally.

Abstract

Background: The survival and prognosis of patients are significantly threatened by cutaneous melanoma (CM), which is a highly aggressive disease. It is therefore crucial to determine the most recent survival rate of CM. This study used population-based cancer registry data to examine the 5-year relative survival rate of CM in the US.

Methods: Period analysis was used to assess the relative survival rate and trends of patients with CM in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2004-2018. And based on the data stratified by age, gender, race and subtype in the SEER database, a generalized linear model was 12established to predict the 5-year relative survival rate of CM patients from 2019 to 2023.

Results: The 5-year relative survival increased to various degrees for both total CM and CM subtypes during the observation period. The improvement was greatest for amelanotic melanoma, increasing from 69.0% to 81.5%. The 5-year overall relative survival rates of CM were 92.9%, 93.5%, and 95.6% for 2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2018, respectively. Females had a marginally higher survival rate than males for almost all subtypes, older people had lower survival rates than younger people, white patients had higher survival rates than nonwhite ones, and urban locations had higher rates of survival from CM than rural locations did. The survival rate of CM was significantly lower for distant metastasis.

Conclusion: The survival rate of patients with CM gradually improved overall during 2004-2018. With the predicted survival rate of 96.7% for 2019-2023, this trend will still be present. Assessing the changes experienced by patients with CM over the previous 15 years can help in predicting the future course of CM. It also provides a scientific foundation that associated departments can use to develop efficient tumor prevention and control strategies.

Keywords: SEER; cutaneous melanoma; period analysis method; relative survival rate; survival trend analyses.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Aged
Female
Humans
Male
Melanoma* / epidemiology
Prognosis
SEER Program
Skin Neoplasms* / epidemiology
Survival Rate

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. The study was supported by Key Scientific Problems and Medical Technical Problems Research Project of China Medical Education Association (2022KTZ009) and Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Medicine Informatization (2021B1212040007).