The predictive accuracy of coronary heart disease risk prediction models in rural Northwestern China

Jiangwei Qiu; Zhenqi Chang; Kai Wang; Kexin Chen; Qingan Wang; Jiaxing Zhang; Juan Li; Chan Yang; Yi Zhao; Yuhong Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.pmedr.2023.102503

The predictive accuracy of coronary heart disease risk prediction models in rural Northwestern China

Prev Med Rep. 2023 Nov 10:36:102503. doi: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2023.102503. eCollection 2023 Dec.

Authors

Jiangwei Qiu^{1

2}, Zhenqi Chang¹, Kai Wang^{1

3}, Kexin Chen¹, Qingan Wang^{1

3}, Jiaxing Zhang^{1

3}, Juan Li¹, Chan Yang^{1

4}, Yi Zhao^{1

2

3}, Yuhong Zhang^{1

2

3}

Affiliations

¹ School of Public, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China.
² NHC Key Laboratory of Metabolic Cardiovascular Diseases Research, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China.
³ The Key Laboratory of Environmental Factors and Chronic Disease Control, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China.
⁴ Department of Community Nursing, School of Nursing, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China.

Abstract

Cardiovascular risk models developed may have limitations when applied to rural Chinese. This study validated and compared the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (PAR) models in predicting 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in a rural cohort in Ningxia, China from 2008 to 2019. The FRS and PAR models were validated by estimating predicted events, C index, calibration χ² and plots. 1381 adults without CHD at baseline were followed up for 9.75 years on average. 168 CHD cases were observed. The FRS and PAR underestimated CHD events by 22 % and 46 % for the total population, while overestimated for males by 152 % and 78 %, respectively. The C index was slightly higher for PAR than FRS. Both models showed weak calibration with chi-square values above 20 (p < 0.001). Bland-Altman plots indicated FRS predicted higher CHD risk than PAR, lacking consistency. Overall, FRS and PAR demonstrated limited performance in predicting 10-year CHD risk in this rural population. PAR had slightly better discrimination than FRS, but require further improvement in calibration and individual risk estimation to suit the rural population in Northwest China.

Keywords: Coronary heart disease; External validation; Prediction model; Risk assessment; Rural population.