Study on the Relationship Between the Number of Adverse Drug Reactions of Essential Drugs and Visits: Based on Vector Autoregressive Model

Wan Tang; Hongdou Chen; Zixin Zhang; Gang Wu; Yanquan Lin

doi:10.2147/RMHP.S420407

Study on the Relationship Between the Number of Adverse Drug Reactions of Essential Drugs and Visits: Based on Vector Autoregressive Model

Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2023 Dec 14:16:2771-2778. doi: 10.2147/RMHP.S420407. eCollection 2023.

Authors

Wan Tang^{1

2}, Hongdou Chen^{1

2}, Zixin Zhang^{1

2}, Gang Wu^{1

2}, Yanquan Lin^{1

2

3}

Affiliations

¹ Pharmacy, Suqian Hospital of Nanjing Drum-Tower Hospital Group, Suqian, People's Republic of China.
² Pharmacy, Affiliated Suqian Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Suqian, People's Republic of China.
³ Pharmacy, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, People's Republic of China.

Abstract

Objective: To analyse the relationship between the adverse drug reactions (ADRs) of essential drugs and visits, based on the recorded annual increase in ADRs associated with essential medicines in China, to provide a reliable theoretical basis for further analysis and optimization of the safety of essential drugs.

Methods: The data of adverse reactions of essential drugs in China from 2011 to 2020, time series analysis was conducted, and vector autoregressive (VAR) model was established. The relationship between the number of ADRs and visits was explored empirically through Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition.

Results: There was a long-term cointegration relationship and one-way causality between the number of visits and ADRs caused by essential medicines. In the initial stage, the ADR response to the number of visits increased sharply, but with an increase in the number of lag periods, the impact remained basically stable, even showing a slight decreasing trend.

Conclusion: The number of visits impacts ADRs caused by essential medicines, but this impact remains basically stable after reaching a certain level.

Keywords: adverse drug reactions; essential medicines; time-series analysis; vector autoregressive model.

Grants and funding

This research was supported by The Fifth Phase 333 High-Level Talents Training Research Funding Project of Jiangsu Province (BRA2020234) and Jiangsu Pharmaceutical Association–Chia Tai Tianqing (Lianyungang) Hospital Pharmaceutical Research Project (Q202043).