Identifying plasma biomarkers early after allo-HCT may become crucial to prevent and treat severe aGvHD. We utilized samples from 203 allo-HCT patients selected from the Blood & Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network (BMT CTN) to identify new biomarker models to predict aGvHD and overall mortality. Two new biomarkers (Gal-3 and LAG-3), and previously identified biomarkers (ST2/IL33R, IL6, Reg3A, PD-1, TIM-3, TNFR1) were screened. Increased Gal-3 levels measured at Day +7 post-transplant predicted the development of aGvHD (grade 2-4) in the total population [AUC: 0.602; P = 0.045] while higher Day +14 levels predicted overall mortality due to toxicity among patients receiving reduced intensity conditioning [P = 0.028] but not myeloablative conditioning. Elevated LAG-3 levels (Day +21) were associated with less severe aGvHD [159.1 ng/mL vs 222.0 ng/mL; P = 0.046]. We developed a model utilizing Gal-3, LAG-3, and PD-1 levels at Days +14 and +21 with an improved performance to predict aGvHD and overall non-relapse mortality. We confirmed four informative biomarkers (Reg3A, ST2, TIM-3, and TNFR1) predict severe aGvHD at day +14 and day +21 (grade 3-4). In conclusion, the combination of Gal-3 alone or in combination with LAG-3, and PD-1 is a new informative model to predict aGvHD development and overall non-relapse mortality after allo-HCT.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.