Objective: The relationship between the non-high-density lipoprotein to high-density lipoprotein ratio (non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio) and changes in glycemic status as well as the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has been well established. However, there is a lack of evidence concerning the association between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the reversal of normoglycemia in individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG). Therefore, this study aimed to examine the connection between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the likelihood of reverting to normoglycemia among people with IFG.
Methods: This retrospective cohort study examined data collected from 15,524 non-selective participants with IFG at the Rich Healthcare Group in China between January 2010 and 2016. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to investigate the connection between the baseline non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the probability of reverting to normoglycemia. We were able to discover the non-linear association between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and reversion to normoglycemia using a Cox proportional hazards regression model with cubical spline smoothing. We also performed several sensitivity and subgroup analyses. A competing risk multivariate Cox regression was utilized as well to examine the development to diabetes as a competing risk for the reversal of normoglycemic events.
Results: In our study, a total of 15,524 individuals participated, with a mean age of 50.9 ± 13.5 years, and 64.7% were male. The average baseline non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio was 2.9 ± 0.9. Over a median follow-up period of 2.9 years, we observed a reversion rate to normoglycemia of 41.8%. After adjusting for covariates, our findings revealed a negative association between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the likelihood of reverting to normoglycemia (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.69-0.74). Notably, we identified a non-linear relationship between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and the probability of transitioning from IFG to normoglycemia. We found an inflection point at a non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio of 3.1, with HRs of 0.63 (95% CI 0.69, 0.74) on the left side and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74, 0.83) on the right side of the point. Competing risks multivariate Cox's regression, sensitivity analysis, and subgroup analysis consistently supported our robust results.
Conclusion: Our study has revealed a negative and non-linear relationship between the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio and reversion to normoglycemia in Chinese people with IFG. Specifically, when the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio was below 3.1, a significant and negative association with reversion to normoglycemia was observed. Furthermore, keeping the non-HDL-c/HDL-c ratio below 3.1 significantly elevated the probability of returning to normoglycemia.
Keywords: Competitive risk model; Cox proportional-hazards regression model; Impaired fasting glucose; Non-high-density lipoprotein to high-density lipoprotein ratio; Non-linear relationship; Regression to normoglycemia.
© 2023. The Author(s).