Net-zero aviation: Transition barriers and radical climate policy design implications

Stefan Gössling; Andreas Humpe

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169107

Net-zero aviation: Transition barriers and radical climate policy design implications

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Feb 20:912:169107. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169107. Epub 2023 Dec 15.

Authors

Stefan Gössling¹, Andreas Humpe²

Affiliations

¹ Western Norway Research Institute, PO Box 163, 6851 Sogndal, Norway; School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, 391 82 Kalmar, Sweden. Electronic address: sgo@vestforsk.no.
² Munich University of Applied Sciences, Schachenmeierstraße 35, 80636 München, Germany; Liverpool John Moores University, IC1 Liverpool Science Park, 146 Brownlow Hill, Liverpool, L3 5RF, UK.

PMID: 38104828
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169107

Abstract

While air transport decarbonization is theoretically feasible, less attention has been paid to the complexity incurred in various 'transition barriers' that act as roadblocks to net-zero goals. A total of 40 barriers related to mitigation, management, technology and fuel transition, finance, and governance are identified. As these make decarbonization uncertain, the paper analyzes air transport system's growth, revenue, and profitability. Over the period 1978-2022, global aviation has generated marginal profits of US$₂₀₂₀0.94 per passenger, or US$₂₀₂₀82 billion in total. Low profitability makes it unlikely that the sector can finance the fuel transition cost, at US$0.5-2.1 trillion (Dray et al. 2022). Four radical policy scenarios for air transport futures are developed. All are characterized by "limitations", such as CO₂ taxes, a carbon budget, alternative fuel obligations, or available capacity. Scenario runs suggest that all policy scenarios will more reliably lead to net-zero than the continued volume growth model pursued by airlines.

Keywords: Aviation; Climate change; Climate policy; Mitigation; Net-zero; Technology optimism.