Cities are the center of energy consumption. Electrification integrates urban energy structure and achieves the efficient use of clean energy. Exploring the urban impact of accelerated electrification under the low-carbon path is crucial to reducing urban pollution and carbon. Based on the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System(LEAP-DG), this study set up three scenarios, including the baseline, low-carbon, and accelerated electrification scenarios, to evaluate the emission reduction potential of electrification under different power structures, quantify the contribution of key sectors, and discuss the coordinated emission reduction effect of Dongguan, a typical manufacturing city in Guangdong. The results showed that accelerated electrification under the low-carbon path would reduce the emission intensity of power pollutants, and in 2050, Dongguan will further reduce CO2, NOx, VOC, and CO by 7.35×106, 1.28×104, 1.62×104, and 8.13×104 t; SO2 and PM2.5 emission reductions on the consumption side and increased emissions on the production side had been balanced. Accelerated electrification in the industrial and transportation sectors would reduce CO2 and air pollutant emissions at the same time, and the transportation sector would benefit from the high conversion efficiency of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, reducing CO2, CO, VOC, and NOx by 5.42×106, 7.76×104, 1.43×104, and 1.06×104 t, respectively, in 2050. In the building sector with high electrification rates, coal power was higher in extra electricity, increasing CO2 and pollutant emissions. Under the optimization of power supply structure, cities can reasonably adjust the electrification of different departments to achieve targeted pollution prevention and control.
Keywords: CO2; LEAP model; accelerated electrification; air pollutants; collaborative emission reduction.