Global vegetation, moisture, thermal and climate interactions intensify compound extreme events

Oluwafemi E Adeyeri; Wen Zhou; Christopher E Ndehedehe; Xuan Wang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169261

Global vegetation, moisture, thermal and climate interactions intensify compound extreme events

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Feb 20:912:169261. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169261. Epub 2023 Dec 12.

Authors

Oluwafemi E Adeyeri¹, Wen Zhou², Christopher E Ndehedehe³, Xuan Wang⁴

Affiliations

¹ Low-Carbon and Climate Impact Research Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong; Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice System for Weather and Climate, Ministry of Education, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia.
² Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice System for Weather and Climate, Ministry of Education, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Key Laboratory for Polar Science of the MNR, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai, China. Electronic address: wen_zhou@fudan.edu.cn.
³ Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia; School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia.
⁴ Low-Carbon and Climate Impact Research Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong.

PMID: 38097089
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169261

Abstract

Compound extreme events, encompassing drought, vegetation stress, wildfire severity, and heatwave intensity (CDVWHS), pose significant threats to societal, environmental, and health systems. Understanding the intricate relationships governing CDVWHS evolution and their interaction with climate teleconnections is crucial for effective climate adaptation strategies. This study leverages remote sensing, reanalysis data, and climate models to analyze CDVWHS during historical (1982-2014), near-future (2028-2060), and far-future (2068-2100) periods under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP; 245 and 585). Our results show that reduced vegetation health, unfavorable temperature conditions, and low moisture conditions have negligible effects on vegetation density. However, they worsen the intensity of heatwaves and increase the risk of wildfires. Wildfires can persist when thermal conditions are poor despite favorable moisture levels. For example, despite adequate moisture availability, we link the 2012 Siberian wildfire in the Ob basin to anomalous negative thermal conditions and concurrent unfavorable thermal-moisture conditions. In contrast, the Amazon experiences extreme and exceptional drought associated with unfavorable moisture conditions in the same year. A comparative analysis of Siberian and North American fires reveals distinct burned area anomalies due to variations in vegetation density and wildfire fuel. The North American fires have lower positive anomalies in burned areas because of negative anomalous vegetation density, which reduced the amount of wildfire fuel. Furthermore, we examine basin-specific variability in climate teleconnections related to compound CDVWHS, revealing the primary modes of variability and evolution of CDVWHS through climate teleconnection patterns. Moreover, a substantial increase in the magnitude of heatwave severity emerges between the near and far future under SSP 585. This study underscores the urgency for targeted actions to enhance ecosystem resilience and safeguard vulnerable communities from CDVWHS impacts. Identifying CDVWHS hotspots and comprehending their complex relationships with environmental factors are essential for developing effective adaptation strategies in a changing climate.

Keywords: Climate change adaptation; Compound extreme events; Drought; Heatwaves; Vegetation stress; Wildfires.