Prediction of death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers

Oleg Gaidai; Yihan Xing; Rajiv Balakrishna; Jiayao Sun; Xiaolong Bai

doi:10.1002/cai2.47

Prediction of death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers

Cancer Innov. 2023 Feb 9;2(2):140-147. doi: 10.1002/cai2.47. eCollection 2023 Apr.

Authors

Oleg Gaidai¹, Yihan Xing², Rajiv Balakrishna², Jiayao Sun³, Xiaolong Bai³

Affiliations

¹ Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Marine Renewable Energy, College of Engineering Science and Technology Shanghai Ocean University Shanghai China.
² Department of Mechanical and Structural Engineering and Materials Science University of Stavanger Stavanger Norway.
³ School of Naval Architecture & Ocean Engineering Jiangsu University of Science and Technology Zhenjiang China.

Abstract

Background: To estimate cardiovascular and cancer death rates by regions and time periods.

Design: Novel statistical methods were used to analyze clinical surveillance data.

Methods: A multicenter, population-based medical survey was performed. Annual recorded deaths from cardiovascular diseases were analyzed for all 195 countries of the world. It is challenging to model such data; few mathematical models can be applied because cardiovascular disease and cancer data are generally not normally distributed.

Results: A novel approach to assessing the biosystem reliability is introduced and has been found to be particularly suitable for analyzing multiregion environmental and healthcare systems. While traditional methods for analyzing temporal observations of multiregion processes do not deal with dimensionality efficiently, our methodology has been shown to be able to cope with this challenge.

Conclusions: Our novel methodology can be applied to public health and clinical survey data.

Keywords: cancer; cardiovascular disease; mathematical biology; probability forecast; public health.