Opposite causal effects of birthweight on myocardial infarction and atrial fibrillation and the distinct mediating pathways: a Mendelian randomization study

Abstract

Background: Previous observational studies have documented an inverse association of birthweight with myocardial infarction (MI) but a positive association with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the causality of these associations and the underlying mediating pathways remain unclear. We aimed to investigate the causal effects of birthweight, incorporating both fetal and maternal genetic effects, on MI and AF, and identify potential mediators in their respective pathways.

Methods: We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using genome-wide association study summary statistics for birthweight (N = 297,356 for own birthweight and 210,248 for offspring birthweight), MI (N_case=61,000, N_control=577,000), AF (N_case=60,620, N_control=970,216), and 52 candidate mediators (N = 13,848-1,295,946). Two-step MR was employed to identify and assess the mediation proportion of potential mediators in the associations of birthweight with MI and AF, respectively. As a complement, we replicated analyses for fetal-specific birthweight and maternal-specific birthweight.

Results: Genetically determined each 1-SD lower birthweight was associated with a 40% (95% CI: 1.22-1.60) higher risk of MI, whereas each 1-SD higher birthweight was causally associated with a 29% (95% CI: 1.16-1.44) higher risk of AF. Cardiometabolic factors, including lipids and lipoproteins, glucose and insulin, blood pressure, and fatty acids, each mediated 4.09-23.71% of the total effect of birthweight on MI, followed by body composition and strength traits (i.e., appendicular lean mass, height, and grip strength) and socioeconomic indicators (i.e., education and household income), with the mediation proportion for each factor ranging from 8.08 to 16.80%. By contrast, appendicular lean mass, height, waist circumference, childhood obesity, and body mass index each mediated 15.03-45.12% of the total effect of birthweight on AF. Both fetal-specific birthweight and maternal-specific birthweight were inversely associated with MI, while only fetal-specific birthweight was positively associated with AF. Psychological well-being and lifestyle factors conferred no mediating effect in either association.

Conclusions: Cardiometabolic factors mainly mediated the association between lower birthweight and MI, while body composition and strength traits mediated the association between higher birthweight and AF. These findings provide novel evidence for the distinct pathogenesis of MI and AF and advocate adopting a life-course approach to improving fetal development and subsequent causal mediators to mitigate the prevalence and burden of cardiovascular diseases.

Keywords: Atrial fibrillation; Birthweight; Body composition; Cardiometabolic factors; Mediation; Mendelian randomization; Myocardial Infarction; Socioeconomic status.