Nomogram-Based Risk Stratification to Identify Patients with T3N0M0 Breast Cancer with Survival Benefit from Postmastectomy Radiotherapy

Abstract

Background: The survival benefit of postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) for patients with T3N0M0 breast cancer remains controversial. This study aimed to identify patients with a survival benefit from PMRT by developing a novel risk stratification model.

Patients and methods: The study recruited 2062 patients with pT3N0M0 breast cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database who underwent mastectomy between 2010 and 2019. Overall survival (OS) and breast-cancer-specific survival (BCSS) prognostic nomograms based on multivariate Cox regression were constructed to quantify the survival risk and classify patients into low- and high-risk groups. Subgroup analyses were undertaken to assess the role of PMRT according to age and risk stratification.

Results: In the overall cohort, PMRT was beneficial in improving OS in patients with pT3N0 breast cancer (5-year OS, non-PMRT versus PMRT: 76.6% vs. 84.2%, P < 0.001), while the benefit on BCSS was not significant (P = 0.084). On the basis of the risk stratification nomogram, in the high-risk group, PMRT improved OS in young patients by 10.1%, OS in elderly patients by 12.4%, and BCSS by 10.2% (P < 0.05), but the use of PMRT in the low-risk group did not improve OS and BCSS in all patients (P > 0.05).

Conclusions: We presented a new method for quantifying risk using the nomogram to identify patients with high risk of pT3N0M0 breast cancer. This study found that older patients in the newly constructed high-risk group benefited from OS and BCSS benefits from PMRT, while for younger high-risk patients, there was only a benefit in terms of OS.