Staphylococcus aureus causes endocarditis, osteomyelitis, and bacteremia. Clinicians often prescribe vancomycin as an empiric therapy to account for methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) and narrow treatment based on culture susceptibility results. However, these results reflect a single time point before empiric treatment and represent a limited subset of the total bacterial population within the patient. Thus, while they may indicate that the infection is susceptible to a particular drug, this recommendation may no longer be accurate during therapy. Here, we addressed how antibiotic susceptibility changes over time by accounting for evolution. We evolved 18 methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) populations under increasing vancomycin concentrations until they reached intermediate resistance levels. Sequencing revealed parallel mutations that affect cell membrane stress response and cell-wall biosynthesis. The populations exhibited repeated cross-resistance to daptomycin and varied responses to meropenem, gentamicin, and nafcillin. We accounted for this variability by deriving likelihood estimates that express a population's probability of exhibiting a drug response following vancomycin treatment. Our results suggest antistaphylococcal penicillins are preferable first-line treatments for MSSA infections but also highlight the inherent uncertainty that evolution poses to effective therapies. Infections may take varied evolutionary paths; therefore, considering evolution as a probabilistic process should inform our therapeutic choices.