Climate change is one of the most prominent factors influencing the spatial distribution of plants in China, including gymnosperms. Climatic factors influence gymnosperm distribution along elevational gradients on the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (QTP), and understanding how species adapt to these factors is important for identifying the impacts of global climate change. For the first time, we examined the county-level distribution of gymnosperm species on QTP using data from field surveys, published works, monographs, and internet sources. We used simulated distribution data of gymnosperms (N = 79) along the elevational gradients to investigate the overall impact of environmental variables in explaining the richness pattern of gymnosperms. Eighteen environmental variables were classified into three key variable sets (climatic seasonality, energy-water, and physical tolerance). We employed principal component analysis and generalized linear models to assess the impact of climatic variables on the gymnosperm's richness pattern. Gymnosperm species are unevenly distributed across the plateau and decline gradually from the southeast to the northwest. The altitudinal gradients have a unimodal relationship with the richness of gymnosperms, with the maximum species richness at an elevation of 3200 m. The joint effects of physical tolerance and energy-water predictors have explained the highest diversity of gymnosperms at mid-elevation. Because the richness peak correlates significantly with the wettest month's precipitation and moisture index, this confirms the significance of moisture on gymnosperm distributions due to increased precipitation during the wet season. Furthermore, our results provide evidence that climatic seasonality factors are involved in the decline of gymnosperm richness at high elevations. A total of 37% of gymnosperm species on QTP are listed as vulnerable, nearly threatened, or endangered, with elevations ranging from 600 m to 5300 m. As a result, we conclude that gymnosperms are at high risk of extinction because of the current climate fluctuations caused by global climate change. Our research offers fundamental data for the study and protection of gymnosperm species along the steepest elevation gradients.
Keywords: climatic seasonality; conservation; elevation; energy–water; gymnosperms; physical tolerance; species richness.