The global imperative to mitigate carbon emissions for sustainable development has spurred extensive research into economic, social, and energy-related factors. However, prior studies present a complex landscape, yielding mixed conclusions regarding the influence of geopolitical risk, natural resource rents, corrupt governance, and energy intensity. To untangle this ambiguity, we construct a research model grounded in the Environmental Kuznets Curve, employing panel data from 38 countries spanning 2002 to 2020. Employing panel quantile regression models, we directly assess the impact of identified factors. Our findings affirm the alignment between economic growth and carbon emissions, supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Notably, increased geopolitical risk and energy intensity correlate with heightened carbon emissions over time, while corruption governance and natural resource rents exhibit a mitigating effect. Additionally, our study explores the indirect impact of these factors using a panel threshold regression model. Results indicate a diminishing influence of economic growth on carbon emissions. Intriguingly, natural resource rents initially curtail, then amplify the connection between economic growth and carbon emissions. Conversely, rising energy intensity magnifies the relationship between economic expansion and carbon emissions.
Keywords: Corruption governance; EKC; Energy intensity; Geopolitical risk; Natural resource rents.
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