AI-based prediction of the improvement in air quality induced by emergency measures

Abstract

Several cities in the developing world, of which the capital city of India, New Delhi, is an example, often experience air quality in which pollutant levels go way above the levels considered hazardous for human health. To bring down the air quality to within permissible limits quickly, the measures typically taken involve shutting down certain high-polluting activities for some time to enable the air quality to recover temporarily. This paper presents a first-ever model based on artificial neural networks to forecast the extent of reduction in air quality parameters that can be achieved and the time period within which a change can be experienced when the source of the emissions is cut off temporarily. The model is based on the extensive data on the extent of reduction in air quality parameters that occurred during the lockdown that was imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The non-linear autoregressive exogenous network-based model chosen for the purpose employs the hour since stopping of emissions, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and ambient temperature as input parameters to predict the rate of change of PM_2.5 with respect to the concentration at the start of the stopping of the emissions. Air quality data from a key monitoring station in New Delhi was used to develop the model. The model predicted the rate of drop in PM_2.5 with an R and MSE of 0.0044 and 0.9736, respectively, while training and 0.0095 and 0.9583 while testing. The model was then tested with data from 19 other stations in New Delhi, and accuracy of the model was found to be exceptionally accurate, with the correlation between the measured and the predicted PM_2.5 levels ranging from 0.74 to 0.94 and the MSE ranging from 0.0110 to 1.0746. Thus, the model can be employed to determine the number of hours of temporary stoppage of emissions required for the PM_2.5 concentration to reach safe levels. The methodology of development of the model can be extrapolated to construct models tailored for use in other parts of the world as well.

Keywords: Air quality model; Artificial neural network model; Covid lockdown; NARX; New Delhi; Prediction of PM2.5; Rate of reduction of PM2.5.