Comparing frailty prevalence between countries: validation of the Global Burden of Disease study Frailty Index (GBD-FI) in the survey of health, ageing and retirement in Europe

Abstract

Background: Accurate comparable prevalence proportions are required to better understand the epidemiology of frailty. Estimates in many countries are missing or incomparable. The Global Burden of Disease Frailty Index (GBD-FI) applies the deficit accumulation model to generate frailty scores from items available in the Global Burden of Disease study.

Objective: To externally validate the GBD-FI.

Methods: Data were obtained from the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). A 20-item modified GBD-FI was compared with established frailty measures: a 70-item frailty index (FI-70), the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Frailty Phenotype (FP) and SHARE-FI. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were fitted to examine diagnostic accuracy for frailty and predictive validity for 2-year mortality.

Results: In total, 31,624 participants aged ≥50 years from 15 countries were included. Frailty prevalence was 22% using the GBD-FI (ranging from 8% in Switzerland to 41% in Poland). The GBD-FI had good to excellent diagnostic accuracy for frailty, irrespective of approach; the AUC ranged from 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.85-0.87) measuring frailty using the CFS to 0.94 (0.93-0.94) with the FI-70. The GBD-FI had similar accuracy for 2-year mortality (AUC 0.71, 0.69-0.74) compared with the CFS (0.73; P = 0.186), FP (0.73; P = 0.392) and SHARE-FI (0.70; P = 0.255) but lower than the FI-70 (0.76; P < 0.001).

Conclusion: The GBD-FI demonstrated concurrent and predictive validity, suggesting it is a valid measure of frailty. It has the potential to be an efficient, replicable and consistent approach to comparing frailty between countries and regions across time using GBD data.

Keywords: Global Burden of Disease study; frailty index; mortality; older people; predictive validity; prevalence.