Ventricular Remodeling Following Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Decreases Need for Heart Transplantation: A Predictive Model

Abstract

Purpose: For patients with obesity and congestive heart failure (CHF) who require heart transplantation (HT), aggressive weight loss has been associated with ventricular remodeling, or subclinical alterations in left and right ventricular structure that affect systolic function. Many have suggested offering metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) for these patients. As such, we evaluated the role of MBS in HT for patients with obesity and CHF using predictive modelling techniques.

Materials and methods: Markov decision analysis was performed to simulate the life expectancy of 30,000 patients with concomitant obesity, CHF, and 30% ejection fraction (EF) who were deemed ineligible to be waitlisted for HT unless they achieved a BMI < 35 kg/m². Life expectancy following diet and exercise (DE), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), and sleeve gastrectomy (SG) was estimated. Base case patients were defined as having a pre-intervention BMI of 45 kg/m². Sensitivity analysis of initial BMI was performed.

Results: RYGB patients had lower rates of HT and received HT quicker when needed. Base case patients who underwent RYGB gained 2.2 additional mean years survival compared with patients who underwent SG and 10.3 additional mean years survival compared with DE. SG patients gained 6.2 mean years of life compared with DE.

Conclusion: In this simulation of 30,000 patients with obesity, CHF, and reduced EF, MBS was associated with improved survival by not only decreasing the need for transplantation due to improvements in EF, but also increasing access to HT when needed due to lower average BMI.

Keywords: Bariatric surgery; Decision analysis; Ejection fraction; Heart failure; Heart transplantation; Markov; Obesity; Ventricular remodeling.