Colony Collapse disorder (the CCD) is the term used to describe the global decline in bee populations. The research mission of this article is to identify which factors contribute to the CCD and understand how these factors contribute to the decline of bee populations, which may provide methods for restoring global bee populations. Two parts of the study will be mentioned in this article. The first half of our study was to understand such collective intelligence (and habits such as seasonal behavioral change) and use a mathematical model to simulate it. We then input the variables that we used to simulate honeybee collective intelligence into a time-dependent model to predict the population of a honey colony over time. In this model, we excluded the factors that might cause the CCD on purpose, so we could use it as a controlled set of honeybee natural population dynamics. We compared the results of this population model to experimental data we found, and they matched within certain degrees. The second half of our study was to perform a sensitivity analysis by introducing back the three factors that might cause the CCD to the population model including climate change, pesticides, and habitat destruction. The paper further discussed the strength and weaknesses of the mathematical model and used this model to predict how many honeybee hives were needed to support the pollination of a 20-acre parcel of land containing crops that benefit from pollination. Additionally, an infographic of our method was illustrated.
Keywords: Colony Collapse disorder; sensitivity analysis; time-dependent model.