Since COVID-19 has brought great challenges to global public health governance, developing methods that track the evolution of the virus over the course of an epidemic or pandemic is useful for public health. This paper uses anomaly detection models to analyze SARS-CoV-2 virus genome k-mers to predict possible new critical variants in the collected samples. We used the sample data from Argentina, China and Portugal obtained from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to conduct multiple rounds of evaluation on several anomaly detection models, to verify the feasibility of this virus early warning and surveillance idea and find appropriate anomaly detection models for actual epidemic surveillance. Through multiple rounds of model testing, we found that the LUNAR (learnable unified neighborhood-based anomaly ranking) and LUNAR+LUNAR stacking model performed well in new critical variants detection. The results of simulated dynamic detection validate the feasibility of this approach, which can help efficiently monitor samples in local areas.
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; anomaly detection; k-mer; machine learning; virus surveillance.