Development and Internal Validation of Machine Learning Models to Predict Mortality and Disability After Mechanical Thrombectomy for Acute Anterior Circulation Large Vessel Occlusion

Abstract

Objective: Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) improves outcomes in patients with LVO but many still experience mortality or severe disability. We sought to develop machine learning (ML) models that predict 90-day outcomes after MT for LVO.

Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent MT for LVO between 2015-2021 at a Comprehensive Stroke Center were reviewed. Outcomes included 90-day favorable functional status (mRS 0-2), severe disability (mRS 4-6), and mortality. ML models were trained for each outcome using prethrombectomy data (pre) and with thrombectomy data (post).

Results: Three hundred and fifty seven patients met the inclusion criteria. After model screening and hyperparameter tuning the top performing ML model for each outcome and timepoint was random forest (RF). Using only prethrombectomy features, the AUCs for the RF_pre models were 0.73 (95% CI 0.62-0.85) for favorable functional status, 0.77 (95% CI 0.65-0.86) for severe disability, and 0.78 (95% CI 0.64-0.88) for mortality. All of these were better than a standard statistical model except for favorable functional status. Each RF model outperformed Pre, SPAN-100, THRIVE, and HIAT scores (P < 0.0001 for all). The most predictive features were premorbid mRS, age, and NIHSS. Incorporating MT data, the AUCs for the RF_post models were 0.80 (95% CI 0.67-0.90) for favorable functional status, 0.82 (95% CI 0.69-0.91) for severe disability, and 0.71 (95% CI 0.55-0.84) for mortality.

Conclusions: RF models accurately predicted 90-day outcomes after MT and performed better than standard statistical and clinical prediction models.

Keywords: Large vessel occlusion; Machine learning; Mechanical thrombectomy; Outcome prediction.