Deaths of despair in England: an observational study of local authority mortality data

Christine Camacho; Roger T Webb; Peter Bower; Luke Munford

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02124-4

Deaths of despair in England: an observational study of local authority mortality data

Lancet. 2023 Nov:402 Suppl 1:S31. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02124-4.

Authors

Christine Camacho¹, Roger T Webb², Peter Bower³, Luke Munford³

Affiliations

¹ Division of Population Health, Health Services Research and Primary Care, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK; National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration Greater Manchester (ARC-GM), Manchester, UK. Electronic address: christine.camacho@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk.
² Division of Psychology and Mental Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK; National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration Greater Manchester (ARC-GM), Manchester, UK.
³ Division of Population Health, Health Services Research and Primary Care, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK; National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration Greater Manchester (ARC-GM), Manchester, UK.

PMID: 37997072
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02124-4

Abstract

Background: Deaths of Despair (DoD) are socially patterned causes of death encompassing drug and alcohol misuse and suicide. DoDs are strongly associated with socioeconomic disadvantage. England has high levels of inequalities, so we hypothesised the existence of marked geographical variations in DoD. We aimed to yield new knowledge on the spatial distribution of DoD, and area-level socioeconomic factors that predict DoD risk in England.

Methods: This observational study was conducted using ICD-10 coded deaths for 307 local authorities in England during 2019-21. Deaths were grouped to non-overlapping categories of drug-related death, alcohol-specific death, and suicide. The mean contributions of each of these causes to the total number of DoD in England were calculated with Poisson exact confidence intervals. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for DoD were generated for each local authority population. A multivariable regression model for DoD risk was developed using 25 socioeconomic variables.

Findings: An estimated 46 200 people lost their lives due to DoD between Jan 1, 2019, and Dec 31, 2021. Regional SMRs ranged from 57·4 (SD 16·1) in London to 144·1 (SD 26·8) in the northeast of England (p<0·0001). Alcohol-specific deaths were the largest contributor of DoD, accounting for 44·1% of DoD (95% CI 43·5-44·8), followed by drug-related death (28·1%, 27·7-28·6) and suicide (27·7%, 27·2-28·2). Living in the North, living alone, White British ethnicity, lower inward migration, economic inactivity, income deprivation in older people, employment in elementary occupations, unemployment, and education deprivation in adults were significantly associated with higher DoD rates in England.

Interpretation: DoD in England are spatially patterned, with northern regions experiencing a considerably higher burden of mortality from these avoidable causes. A key limitation is ecological bias. This study provides novel insights into area-level risk factors for DoD in England.

Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration Greater Manchester (ARC-GM).

Publication types

Observational Study

MeSH terms

Adult
Aged
England / epidemiology
Humans
London
Risk Factors
Socioeconomic Factors
Suicide*