The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may exert profound impacts on China's carbon emissions via structural changes. Due to a lack of data, previous studies have focused on quantifying the changes in carbon emissions but have failed to identify structural changes in the determinants of carbon emissions. Here, we use China's latest input-output table and apply structural decomposition analyses to understand the dynamic changes in the determinants of carbon emissions from 2012 to 2020, specifically the impact of COVID-19 on carbon emissions. We find that final demand per capita contributed to emissions growth at a slower pace, but production structure drove a greater carbon emissions increase than before the pandemic. Export-led emissions growth rebounded, and investment-led emissions were more concentrated in the construction sector. The carbon intensity of several heavy industries increased, e.g., the nonmetallic products sector, the metal products sector, and the petroleum, coking, and nuclear fuel sector. In addition, lower production efficiency and increased reliance on carbon-intensive inputs indicated a deterioration in production structure. For policy implications, efforts should be undertaken to increase investment in low-carbon industries and increase the proportion of consumption in GDP to shift investment-led growth to consumption-led growth for an inclusive and green recovery from the pandemic.
Keywords: CO2 emissions; green recovery; input−output analysis; pandemic impacts; structural decomposition analysis.