Cost-effectiveness analysis of artificial intelligence-based diabetic retinopathy screening in rural China based on the Markov model

PLoS One. 2023 Nov 16;18(11):e0291390. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0291390. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of different diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening strategies in rural regions in China by using a Markov model to make health economic evaluations. In this study, we determined the structure of a Markov model according to the research objectives, which required parameters collected through field investigation and literature retrieval. After perfecting the model with parameters and assumptions, we developed a Markov decision analytic model according to the natural history of DR in TreeAge Pro 2011. For this model, we performed Markov cohort and cost-effectiveness analyses to simulate the probabilistic distributions of different developments in DR and the cumulative cost-effectiveness of artificial intelligence (AI)-based screening and ophthalmologist screening for DR in the rural population with diabetes mellitus (DM) in China. Additionally, a model-based health economic evaluation was performed by using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Last, one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the stability of the results. From the perspective of the health system, compared with no screening, AI-based screening cost more (the incremental cost was 37,257.76 RMB (approximately 5,211.31 US dollars)), but the effect was better (the incremental utility was 0.33). Compared with AI-based screening, the cost of ophthalmologist screening was higher (the incremental cost was 14,886.76 RMB (approximately 2,070.19 US dollars)), and the effect was worse (the incremental utility was -0.31). Compared with no screening, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AI-based DR screening was 112,146.99 RMB (15,595.47 US dollars)/QALY, which was less than the threshold for the ICER (< 3 times the per capita gross domestic product (GDP), 217,341.00 RMB (30,224.03 US dollars)). Therefore, AI-based screening was cost-effective, which meant that the increased cost for each additional quality-adjusted life year was merited. Compared with no screening and ophthalmologist screening for DR, AI-based screening was the most cost-effective, which not only saved costs but also improved the quality of life of diabetes patients. Popularizing AI-based DR screening strategies in rural areas would be economically effective and feasible and can provide a scientific basis for the further formulation of early screening programs for diabetic retinopathy.

MeSH terms

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • China / epidemiology
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
  • Diabetes Mellitus*
  • Diabetic Retinopathy* / diagnosis
  • Diabetic Retinopathy* / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Markov Chains
  • Mass Screening / methods
  • Quality of Life
  • Quality-Adjusted Life Years
  • Rural Population

Grants and funding

This study was financially supported by the General Project of Shanxi Provincial Key R & D Plan (social development field): Research on Screening Model of Diabetic Retinopathy Based on Artificial Intelligence Diagnosis System jointly granted by Finance Department and Technology Department of Shanxi Province (grant no., 201903D321031). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. There was no additional external funding received for this study.