The objective of this study was to evaluate the discriminative capabilities of radiomics signatures derived from three distinct machine learning algorithms and to identify a robust radiomics signature capable of predicting pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients diagnosed with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). In a retrospective study, 211 LARC patients were consecutively enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n = 148) and a validation cohort (n = 63). From pretreatment contrast-enhanced planning CT images, a total of 851 radiomics features were extracted. Feature selection and radiomics score (Radscore) construction were performed using three different machine learning methods: least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM). The SVM-derived Radscore demonstrated a strong correlation with the pCR status, yielding area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.880 and 0.830 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, outperforming the RF and LASSO methods. Based on this, a nomogram was developed by combining the SVM-based Radscore with clinical indicators to predict pCR after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. The nomogram exhibited superior predictive power, achieving AUCs of 0.910 and 0.866 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves and decision curve analyses confirmed its appropriateness. The SVM-based Radscore demonstrated promising performance in predicting pCR for LARC patients. The machine learning-driven nomogram, which integrates the Radscore and clinical indicators, represents a valuable tool for predicting pCR in LARC patients.
Keywords: locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC); neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT); nomogram; pathological complete response (pCR); radiomics signature.