Secular trends of morbidity and mortality of thyroid cancer in five Asian countries from 1990 to 2019 and their predictions to 2035

Abstract

Background: The rising burden of thyroid cancer (TC) is a public health problem in Asia. Predicting the future burden of TC in Asian countries is essential for disease prevention.

Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 for five Asian countries. We applied Bayesian age-period-cohort models to predict morbidity and mortality to 2035 and calculated age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Furthermore, the estimated annual percentage change was calculated to evaluate the variation of ASIR and ASMR.

Results: By 2035, predictions suggest that cases of TC will reach 75.56 × 10³ in China, 70.22 × 10³ in India, 15.78 × 10³ in the Republic of Korea, 9.01 × 10³ in Japan and 5.55 × 10³ in Thailand, respectively. Except Japan, a significant upward trend of ASIR of TC will be observed in five Asian countries. The deaths from TC will increase in five countries and India will become the highest reaching 14.07 × 10³ . The ASMR will rise to 0.83/100 000 in India and 1.06/100 000 in the Republic of Korea, while it will drop to 0.35/100 000 in China, 0.43/100 000 in Japan and 0.50/100 000 in Thailand. In further predictions projected by sex, the growth rate of ASIR is reported higher in males than in females among most countries. ASMR of male will exceed that of females in China and Thailand by 2035.

Conclusion: The disease burden caused by TC will further increase in five Asian countries, especially for men. It is necessary to develop more rational and timely disease prevention and manage strategies facing this disease trend.

Keywords: Asian countries; morbidity; mortality; prediction; thyroid cancer.