Anthropogenic climate change has a large impact on wildlife populations and the scale of the impacts has been increasing. In this study, we utilised 3dRAD sequence data to investigate genetic divergence and identify the environmental drivers of genetic differentiation between 12 populations of mountain chickadees, family Paridae, sampled across North America. To examine patterns of genetic variation across the range, we conducted a discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC), admixture analysis, and calculated pairwise Fst values. The DAPC revealed four clusters: southern California, eastern Rocky Mountains, northwestern Rocky Mountains, and Oregon/northern California. We then used BayeScEnv to highlight significant outlier SNPs associated with the five environmental variables. We identified over 150 genes linked to outlier SNPs associated with more than 15 pathways, including stress response and circadian rhythm. We also found a strong signal of isolation by distance and local temperature was highly correlated with genetic distance. Maxent simulations showed a northward range shift over the next 50 years and a decrease in suitable habitat, highlighting the need for immediate conservation action.
Keywords: 3dRAD; Poecile gambeli; climate change; gene–environment interaction; population genetics; species distribution models.