Prostate cancer epidemiology and prognostic factors in the United States

Abstract

Objective: Using the latest cohort study of prostate cancer patients, explore the epidemiological trend and prognostic factors, and develop a new nomogram to predict the specific survival rate of prostate cancer patients.

Methods: Patients with prostate cancer diagnosed from January 1, 1975 to December 31, 2019 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database were extracted by SEER stat software for epidemiological trend analysis. General clinical information and follow-up data were also collected from 105 135 patients with pathologically diagnosed prostate cancer from January 1, 2010 to December 1, 2019. The factors affecting patient-specific survival were analyzed by Cox regression, and the factors with the greatest influence on specific survival were selected by stepwise regression method, and nomogram was constructed. The model was evaluated by calibration plots, ROC curves, Decision Curve Analysis and C-index.

Results: There was no significant change in the age-adjusted incidence of prostate cancer from 1975 to 2019, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.45 (95% CI:-0.87~1.80). Among the tumor grade, the most significant increase in the incidence of G2 prostate cancer was observed, with an AAPC of 2.99 (95% CI:1.47~4.54); the most significant decrease in the incidence of G4 prostate cancer was observed, with an AAPC of -10.39 (95% CI:-13.86~-6.77). Among the different tumor stages, the most significant reduction in the incidence of localized prostate cancer was observed with an AAPC of -1.83 (95% CI:-2.76~-0.90). Among different races, the incidence of prostate cancer was significantly reduced in American Indian or Alaska Native and Asian or Pacific Islander, with an AAPC of -3.40 (95% CI:-3.97~-2.82) and -2.74 (95% CI:-4.14~-1.32), respectively. Among the different age groups, the incidence rate was significantly increased in 15-54 and 55-64 age groups with AAPC of 4.03 (95% CI:2.73~5.34) and 2.50 (95% CI:0.96~4.05), respectively, and significantly decreased in ≥85 age group with AAPC of -2.50 (95% CI:-3.43~-1.57). In addition, age, tumor stage, race, PSA and gleason score were found to be independent risk factors affecting prostate cancer patient-specific survival. Age, tumor stage, PSA and gleason score were most strongly associated with prostate cancer patient-specific survival by stepwise regression screening, and nomogram prediction model was constructed using these factors. The Concordance indexes are 0.845 (95% CI:0.818~0.872) and 0.835 (95% CI:0.798~0.872) for the training and validation sets, respectively, and the area under the ROC curves (AUC) at 3, 6, and 9 years was 0.7 or more for both the training and validation set samples. The calibration plots indicated a good agreement between the predicted and actual values of the model.

Conclusions: Although there was no significant change in the overall incidence of prostate cancer in this study, significant changes occurred in the incidence of prostate cancer with different characteristics. In addition, the nomogram prediction model of prostate cancer-specific survival rate constructed based on four factors has a high reference value, which helps physicians to correctly assess the patient-specific survival rate and provides a reference basis for patient diagnosis and prognosis evaluation.

Keywords: epidemiologic trends; nomogram; predictive models; prostate cancer; specific survival.