[Temporal and spatial evolution of ecosystem service value in Ili Valley and its driving factors]

Abstract

Ili Valley is an important ecological barrier in western China and an important economic zone of the Belt and Road Initiative. Exploring the driving factors of ecosystem service value (ESV) based on land use change is of great significance for optimizing regional ecological environment and coordinating human-land relationship. Based on three periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Yili Valley, we used ArcGIS 10.8 and Origin to analyze the characteristics of land use change, temporal and spatial variations of ESV, and the synergy and trade-offs of ecosystem services, and explored the driving factors affecting the spatial differentiation of ESV and the interaction among factors by using Geo-Detector. The results showed that land use change in the study area was obvious from 2000 to 2020, with the area of grassland and water area being greatly reduced and the largest increase for the area of construction land. The ESV of grassland and water area and the service function of water resource supply decreased significantly. ESV high value areas were transformed to low value areas. Synergy was the dominant relationship among ecosystem services in the study area, which showed an increasing trend. Elevation was the main driving factor of ESV spatial differentiation in Yili Valley, and the low elevation plain area suitable for human activities on both sides of the basin was the low ESV value area. The interaction between all factors was manifested as enhanced relationship, while the explanatory power of natural factors was higher than that of social and economic factors.

Keywords: Geo-Detector; Ili Valley; driving force analysis; ecosystem service value; land use change.