Analysis of Risk Factors to Predict Occurrence and Prognosis of Postsurgical Hypertrophic Scar Development: A Review of 4238 Cases

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with the occurrence and prognosis of hypertrophic scarring following thyroidectomy.

Materials and methods: A total of 4238 patients who underwent thyroidectomy were included in this study. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify the risk factors for hypertrophic scar development and its prognosis.

Results: Our analysis revealed that hypertrophic scar development was associated with younger age [odds ratio (OR)=0.949, p<0.0001], male sex (OR=0.562, p<0.0001), higher body mass index (OR=1.137, p<0.0001), prominent sternocleidomastoid muscles (OR=2.522, p<0.0001), scarring located within 1 cm of the sternal notch (OR=4.345, p<0.0001), and a history of keloid development (OR=2.789, p=0.0031). Additionally, scar location within 1 cm of the sternal notch (beta=4.326, p=0.0429) and a history of keloid development (beta=23.082, p<0.0001) were found to be associated with the prognosis of hypertrophic scarring.

Conclusion: The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the risk factors associated with hypertrophic scarring following thyroidectomy. Clinicians can use this information to predict the occurrence of hypertrophic scarring and its prognosis, and take preventative measures accordingly.

Keywords: Hypertrophic scars; keloid; logistic models; prognosis; risk factors; thyroidectomy.