Application of ADMS-Urban for an area with a high contribution of residential heating emissions - model verification and sensitivity study for PM2.5

Paweł Porwisiak; Małgorzata Werner; Maciej Kryza; Helen ApSimon; Huw Woodward; Daniel Mehlig; Lech Gawuc; Karol Szymankiewicz; Tymoteusz Sawiński

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168011

Application of ADMS-Urban for an area with a high contribution of residential heating emissions - model verification and sensitivity study for PM_2.5

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Jan 10:907:168011. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168011. Epub 2023 Oct 21.

Authors

Paweł Porwisiak¹, Małgorzata Werner², Maciej Kryza², Helen ApSimon³, Huw Woodward³, Daniel Mehlig³, Lech Gawuc⁴, Karol Szymankiewicz⁴, Tymoteusz Sawiński²

Affiliations

¹ Faculty of Earth Sciences and Environmental Management, University of Wrocław, Kosiby 8, 51-621 Wroclaw, Poland. Electronic address: pawel.porwisiak@uwr.edu.pl.
² Faculty of Earth Sciences and Environmental Management, University of Wrocław, Kosiby 8, 51-621 Wroclaw, Poland.
³ Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 1NE, UK.
⁴ Institute of Environmental Protection-National Research Institute, Krucza 5/11D, 00-548 Warsaw, Poland.

PMID: 37871816
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168011

Abstract

Air pollution poses a significant risk to both human health and the environment in the contemporary world. Among the various pollutants, particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5) is regarded as the most hazardous. It has been implicated in over four million global fatalities in 2019 alone. This research paper divulges the outcomes of modelling the spatial-temporal fluctuations of PM_2.5 concentrations within the confines of Wroclaw, a city situated in Poland, Central Europe. The model's output was evaluated through comparison with collected data from two government-operated monitoring stations within the city. For this study, we used the ADMS-Urban model and tested two different sources of background data (low-cost sensors and the EMEP MSC-W atmospheric chemistry transport model). The statistical analysis conducted in the paper indicates that the model reproduces the temporal variability of PM_2.5. The conclusions from this research indicate that the average annual PM_2.5 concentration within Wroclaw is 13.8 μg/m³, with the concentration peaking in the month of March. The spatial distribution reveals the highest PM_2.5 concentrations primarily in the southern and western zones of the city, with additional elevated concentrations observed sporadically throughout the city. The study unveils that 1.3 % of Wroclaw's area experiences PM_2.5 concentrations exceeding the EU's annual limit of 20 μg/m³. When considered in relation to the WHO's suggested annual average level of 5 μg/m³, Wroclaw city experiences exceedances throughout. When background concentrations are excluded from the model, the annual average PM2.5 concentration across the city is noted to be reduced by >50 %. A thorough investigation of the city's emission structure, taking into account only emissions from the city without background, indicates that the residential sector contributes about 77.3 % of the total annual average PM_2.5 concentration in Wroclaw. The transportation and industrial sectors account for nearly 19.5 % and 3.2 %, respectively.

Keywords: ADMS-urban; Local scale; Modelling; PM(2.5); Poland.