Evaluating the incentive for soil organic carbon sequestration from carinata production in the Southeast United States

Abstract

Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be increased by cultivating bioenergy crops to produce low-carbon fuels, improving soil quality and agricultural productivity. This study evaluates the incentives for farmers to sequester SOC by adopting a bioenergy crop, carinata. Two agricultural management scenarios - business as usual (BaU) and a climate-smart (no-till) practice - were simulated using an agent-based modeling approach to account for farmers' carinata adoption rates within their context of traditional crop rotations, the associated profitability, influences of neighboring farmers, as well as their individual attitudes. Using the state of Georgia, US, as a case study, the results show that farmers allocated 1056 × 10³ acres (23.8%; 2.47 acres is equivalent to 1 ha) of farmlands by 2050 at a contract price of $6.5 per bushel of carinata seeds and with an incentive of $50 Mg^-1CO2e SOC sequestered under the BaU scenario. In contrast, at the same contract price and SOC incentive rate, farmers allocated 1152 × 10³ acres (25.9%) of land under the no-till scenario, while the SOC sequestration was 483.83 × 10³ Mg CO2e, which is nearly four times the amount under the BaU scenario. Thus, this study demonstrated combinations of seed prices and SOC incentives that encourage farmers to adopt carinata with climate-smart practices to attain higher SOC sequestration benefits.

Keywords: Agent-based model; Bioenergy; Climate-smart agriculture; Incentives; Soil organic carbon; Sustainable aviation fuel.