Impact of human mobility on the epidemic spread during holidays

Han Li; Jianping Huang; Xinbo Lian; Yingjie Zhao; Wei Yan; Li Zhang; Licheng Li

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.001

Impact of human mobility on the epidemic spread during holidays

Infect Dis Model. 2023 Oct 5;8(4):1108-1116. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.001. eCollection 2023 Dec.

Authors

Han Li^{1

2}, Jianping Huang^{1

2}, Xinbo Lian^{1

2}, Yingjie Zhao^{1

2}, Wei Yan^{1

2}, Li Zhang^{1

2}, Licheng Li^{1

3}

Affiliations

¹ Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
² College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
³ School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.

Abstract

COVID-19 has posed formidable challenges as a significant global health crisis. Its complexity stems from factors like viral contagiousness, population density, social behaviors, governmental regulations, and environmental conditions, with interpersonal interactions and large-scale activities being particularly pivotal. To unravel these complexities, we used a modified SEIR epidemiological model to simulate various outbreak scenarios during the holiday season, incorporating both inter-regional and intra-regional human mobility effects into the parameterization scheme. In addition, evaluation metrics were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model simulation by comparing the congruence between simulated results and recorded confirmed cases. The findings suggested that intra-city mobility led to an average surge of 57.35% in confirmed cases of China, while inter-city mobility contributed to an average increase of 15.18%. In the simulation for Tianjin, China, a one-week delay in human mobility attenuated the peak number of cases by 34.47% and postponed the peak time by 6 days. The simulation for the United States revealed that human mobility played a more pronounced part in the outbreak, with a notable disparity in peak cases when mobility was considered. This study highlights that while inter-regional mobility acted as a trigger for the epidemic spread, the diffusion effect of intra-regional mobility was primarily responsible for the outbreak. We have a better understanding on how human mobility and infectious disease epidemics interact, and provide empirical evidence that could contribute to disease prevention and control measures.

Keywords: COVID-19; Human mobility; Modified SEIR model; Parameterization scheme.