The Shift: COVID-19-Associated Deaths are Now Trending Lower Among Blacks and Hispanics Compared to Whites

Abstract

Background: Throughout the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, research revealed people of color were more likely to be infected, have severe illness, and die due to the virus. However, some areas in the USA are now reporting a new shift; lower Black and Hispanic COVID-19 mortality rates compared to their White counterparts. Research indicates that this shift is the result of COVID-19's impact on disparities by race. In this paper, we analyze death data to determine if the new shift has occurred locally. Specifically, we examined COVID-19 prevalence and related death data in Connecticut by comparing race/ethnicity through two periods of time: one before and one after the first case of the Omicron variant of COVID-19.

Methods: This cross-sectional epidemiological analysis to examine cases and deaths by racial/ethnic status utilizes Connecticut data from March 2020 to February 2022. The following assumption is applied: expected pre-Omicron cases and deaths from March 5, 2020 to November 27, 2021 are equal to the number of cases and deaths during Omicron cases and deaths from November 28, 2021 to February 17, 2022. Race/ethnicity are operationalized as non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic.

Results: Pre-Omicron (March 5, 2020 to November 27, 2021) compared to the monthly aged adjusted COVID-19 case rate for Whites (394/10,000 populations), Blacks had a higher rate (501/10,000 populations), and Hispanics had the highest (585/10,000 populations). During the Omicron period (November 28 to February 17, 2022), significant changes in COVID-19 case rates were observed in all three ethnic groups, but the biggest changes were observed in Hispanics, followed by Blacks, and then Whites. The rate ratios further showed a remarkable reduction of 47% in case rates (from 1.0 pre-Omicron and from 1.47 during Omicron, p < 0.0001) for Hispanics, when compared to that of Whites. While Blacks showed a significant, smaller reduction of 5% in case rates (from 1.27 pre-Omicron and from 1.22 during the Omicron, p < 0.001) when compared to Whites. Regarding COVID-19-related mortality, the racial differences were similar.

Conclusions and relevance: By examining Connecticut's COVID-19 death and case data, this study identified the new shift that occurred locally. The current shift may be anchored in the evolution of the COVID-19 virus, public health guidelines/policies, and the degree to which populations have complied with public health recommendations.

Keywords: COVID-19; Health disparity; Mortality; Prevalence; Public health.