Meeting dose prescription is critical to control tumors in radiation therapy. Interfraction dose variations (IDVs) from the prescribed dose in high dose rate brachytherapy (HDR) would cause the target dose to deviate from the prescription but their clinical effect has not been widely discussed in the literature. Our previous study found that IDVs followed a left-skewed distribution. The clinical effect of the IDVs in 100 cervical cancer HDR patients will be addressed in this paper. An in-house Monte Carlo (MC) program was used to simulate clinical outcomes by convolving published tumor dose response curves with IDV distributions. The optimal dose and probability of risk-free local control (RFLC) were calculated using the utility model. The IDVs were well-fitted by the left-skewed Beta distribution, which caused a 3.99% decrease in local control probability and a 1.80% increase in treatment failure. Utility with respect to IDV uncertainty increased the RFLC probability by 6.70% and predicted an optimal dose range of 83 Gy-91 Gy EQD2. It was also found that a 10 Gy dose escalation would not affect toxicity. In conclusion, HRCTV IDV uncertainty reduced LC probabilities and increased treatment failure rates. A dose escalation may help mitigate such effects.
Keywords: beta distribution; cervical cancer; dose response model; dose variation; high dose rate brachytherapy; utility.