Assessing the possibility of China reaching carbon emission peak by 2030 in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

At this stage, it is an important goal for China to solve environmental problems to limit the carbon emission peak by 2030 and then to lower its quality gradually thereafter. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 seriously impacted all aspects of China's social economy and brought many uncertainties to the realization of the carbon emission peak. Based on the fact, it has important theoretical and practical significance to take the problem of China's carbon emissions during the COVID-19 as the research object. Thus, this paper analyzes the current situation of China's CO₂ emissions and finds out that in the context of ongoing COVID-19 response, stimulated by China's economic stimulus policies, CO₂ emissions decrease firstly and then gradually rebound. On this basis, the paper constructs a dynamic model of China's CO₂ emission system to simulate the change in China's CO₂ emissions under different economic stimulus policies. The relevant simulation results demonstrate the following: (1) China cannot realize the CO₂ emission goal by 2030 only by adopting traditional economic stimulus policies. (2) The green economic stimulus policy oriented to the development of clean energy will rebound China's CO₂ emissions in the short term, but it can effectively reduce CO₂ emissions in the long run. The most important factors affecting CO₂ emission reduction are industrial energy consumption and industrial structure, while the energy power generation structure and the transportation structure have a relatively weak impact on the emission reduction effect. (3) The green economic stimulus policy combined with economic stimulus measures and a variety of low-carbon measures can enable China to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030, with a peak value of 11.059 billion tons. In general, green economic stimulus policies can achieve a win-win situation for China's economic recovery and carbon emission peak.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Green economic stimulus policy; Peak carbon dioxide emissions; System dynamics.